Amid calls from international partners, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyi is stuck with a difficult choice: whether or not to hold parliamentary and presidential elections during a war.
On a recent trip to Kyiv, US senator Lindsey Graham – one of the most active advocates of aid to Ukraine – called on the Ukrainian authorities to consider holding elections as soon as possible, despite martial law still being in effect. Tiny Kox, president of the parliamentary assembly of the Council of Europe, has made a similar call.
The idea of holding both presidential and parliamentary elections in 2024 has been in the air for some time in Ukraine. The presidential race is supposed to conclude on 31 March 2024, and the parliamentary campaign – on 29 October this year. That, at least, will not happen because Parliament has just prolonged martial law for another 90 days: Ukrainian laws forbid holding any elections while martial law is imposed, and election campaigns are supposed to last at least 90 days.
The argument in favour of elections is simple: Zelenskyi wants to show that Ukraine is not Russia, and that democracy matters to him and Ukrainian citizens. Besides, Western partners may find it strange that Ukraine would not conduct elections while claiming it is defending democracy in Europe and worldwide.
But conducting elections in Ukraine would be a challenge. More than seven million people have left the country, and around a million Ukrainians are fighting in the army, not to mention the unknown number of Ukrainians in the Russian-occupied parts of Luhansk and Donetsk regions in the east and south, as well as Crimea.
Ensuring election security is a priority for any country. But Russia would likely be ready for any election day or days that took place, meaning Ukraine’s central authorities would be unable to guarantee voters’ safety.
Zelenskyi has suggested that the EU and US should share responsibility for financing wartime election security, pointing out the complexity of involving international and local observers in polling stations close to the front. Then there’s the fact that Ukraine’s counteroffensive in 2023 brought back 241 square kilometres of its land. If the Ukrainian army continues to liberate territory village by village, town by town, in eastern and southern Ukraine, it is anyone’s guess where the front line could be by the time of an election.
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