Topline Results for the October 2022 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters
View the survey’s cross-tabs among registered voters and the likely electorate.
Do you think the United States is on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction?
[IF NEEDED: Based on anything you may have seen or heard, if you had to pick, would you say right track or wrong direction?]
Date |
Pop. |
Right track |
Wrong direction |
[VOL] DK /REF |
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Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
24% |
62% |
14% |
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RV |
27 |
60 |
13 |
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RV |
13 |
77 |
10 |
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LV |
35 |
56 |
9 |
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RV |
31 |
58 |
11 |
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Oct. 28–Nov. 1, 2016 Times/CBS |
Adults |
35 |
61 |
3 |
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July 8–12, 2016 Times/CBS |
Adults |
26 |
69 |
5 |
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May 13–17, 2016 Times/CBS |
Adults |
30 |
63 |
7 |
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Mar. 17–20, 2016 Times/CBS |
Adults |
32 |
61 |
7 |
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Jan. 7–10, 2016 Times/CBS |
Adults |
27 |
65 |
8 |
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Dec. 4–8, 2015 Times/CBS |
Adults |
24 |
68 |
8 |
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Note: Before 2020, the question wording was, “Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?” |
Thinking ahead to the November general election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote, or not at all likely to vote?
Date |
Pop. |
Almost certain |
Very likely |
Somewhat likely |
Not very likely |
Not at all likely |
Already voted |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
51% |
31% |
7% |
3% |
4% |
1% |
2% |
If this year’s elections for Congress were held today, which party’s candidate would you be more likely to vote for in your district:
[READ LIST] [ROTATE RESPONSE OPTIONS]
Date |
Pop. |
The Democratic candidate |
The Republican candidate |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
42% |
43% |
15% |
(If don't know) If you had to decide today, would you lean toward:
[READ LIST] [MATCH ORDER OF RESPONSE OPTIONS IN QCONGHR]
Date |
Pop. |
The Democratic candidate |
The Republican candidate |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
23% |
21% |
56% |
If this year’s elections for Congress were held today, which party’s candidate would you be more likely to vote for in your district: [IF DON'T KNOW: If you had to decide today, would you lean toward …]
Date |
Pop. |
The Democratic candidate |
The Republican candidate |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
46% |
46% |
8% |
RV |
46 |
44 |
10 |
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?
Date |
Pop. |
Strongly approve |
Somewhat approve |
Somewhat disapprove |
Strongly disapprove |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
16% |
22% |
15% |
42% |
6% |
Sept. 6–14, 2022 |
RV |
18 |
23 |
9 |
44 |
5 |
July 5–7, 2022 |
RV |
13 |
20 |
15 |
45 |
6 |
Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump
Date |
Pop. |
Very favorable |
Somewhat favorable |
Somewhat unfavorable |
Very unfavorable |
[VOL] Have not heard of |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
22% |
20% |
10% |
42% |
<.5% |
5% |
RV |
23 |
20 |
9 |
44 |
<.5% |
3 |
|
RV |
21 |
18 |
8 |
49 |
|
3 |
|
LV |
33 |
10 |
6 |
48 |
|
3 |
|
LV |
33 |
11 |
6 |
47 |
|
3 |
|
RV |
27 |
13 |
6 |
50 |
|
4 |
I know it's a very long way away, but in the 2024 presidential primaries and caucuses do you think you will vote in the Republican primary or the Democratic primary, or are you unlikely to vote in a presidential primary or caucus?
Date: |
||
Pop.: |
||
Democratic primary |
34% |
|
Republican primary |
42% |
|
Unlikely to vote in primary |
13% |
|
[VOL] DK/REF |
12% |
(Among those who plan to vote in the Republican primary) If the Republican 2024 presidential primary were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:
[READ LIST] [CHOICES ROTATED, WITH SOMEONE ELSE ALWAYS LAST]
Date |
Pop. |
Donald Trump |
Ron DeSantis [Duh-San-Tis] |
Mike Pence |
Ted Cruz |
Nikki Haley |
Mike Pompeo [Paam-pay-ow] |
[VOL] Someone else |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
49% |
26% |
6% |
4% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
8% |
RV |
49 |
25 |
6 |
7 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
Now thinking about the 2024 general election …
if the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:
[READ LIST]
[IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning towards one candidate?] [ROTATE OPTIONS 1 and 2]
Date |
Pop. |
Joe Biden, the Democrat |
Donald Trump, the Republican |
[VOL] Another candidate |
[VOL] Not going to vote /wouldn't vote if those were the choices |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
42% |
43% |
5% |
6% |
4% |
RV |
45 |
42 |
6 |
4 |
4 |
|
RV |
44 |
41 |
4 |
6 |
4 |
What do you think is the MOST important problem facing the country today?
[IF NEEDED: If you had to pick one that you think is the MOST important.]
Date: |
||
Pop.: |
||
[VOL] The economy (including jobs, stock market) |
26% |
|
[VOL] Inflation or the cost of living |
19% |
|
[VOL] Abortion |
4% |
|
[VOL] Immigration |
5% |
|
[VOL] Crime |
3% |
|
[VOL] Gun policies |
2% |
|
[VOL] health care |
1% |
|
[VOL] Education |
1% |
|
[VOL] Foreign policy |
1% |
|
[VOL] Russia/war in Ukraine |
2% |
|
[VOL] China |
<.5% |
|
[VOL] Climate change |
3% |
|
[VOL] Coronavirus |
<.5% |
|
[VOL] The state of democracy |
7% |
|
[VOL] Election integrity |
1% |
|
[VOL] Equality/inequality |
1% |
|
[VOL] Polarization/division |
4% |
|
[VOL] Racism/racial issues |
2% |
|
[VOL] Trump/Republicans |
3% |
|
[VOL] Biden/Biden administration/Democrats |
2% |
|
[VOL] Other (specify) |
9% |
|
[VOL] Refused |
4% |
Thinking about people you meet, do you think other peoples’ political views …
[READ LIST] [REVERSE RESPONSE OPTIONS FOR HALF SAMPLE]
Date: |
||
Pop.: |
||
Tell you a lot about whether someone is a good person |
14% |
|
Tell you a little about whether someone is a good person |
34% |
|
Don’t tell you anything about whether someone is a good person |
40% |
|
[VOL] DK/REF |
12% |
Have you had any disagreements recently with family or friends over political issues that hurt your relationship?
Date: |
||
Pop.: |
||
Yes |
19% |
|
No |
81% |
|
[VOL] DK/REF |
1% |
Which comes closest to your views, even if neither is exactly right?
[READ LIST] [ROTATE RESPONSE OPTIONS]
Date: |
||
Pop.: |
||
The government mainly works to benefit ordinary people |
22% |
|
The government mainly works to benefit powerful elites |
68% |
|
[VOL] DK/REF |
10% |
Which comes closest to your views, even if neither is exactly right?
[READ LIST] [ROTATE RESPONSE OPTIONS]
Date: |
||
Pop.: |
||
Presidents should do what they think is best, even if that might go outside of existing rules |
34% |
|
Presidents should follow existing rules, even if that prevents them from doing what they think is best |
57% |
|
[VOL] DK/REF |
10% |
Do you think America's political system can still address the nation's problems?
Date |
Pop. |
Can still address the nation's problems |
Too divided politically to solve its problems |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
43% |
50% |
7% |
RV |
41 |
53 |
6 |
|
LV |
54 |
40 |
6 |
Which comes closest to your views, even if neither is exactly right?
[READ LIST] [ROTATE RESPONSE OPTIONS]
Date: |
||
Pop.: |
||
American democracy is currently under threat |
71% |
|
American democracy is not currently under threat |
21% |
|
[VOL] DK/REF |
8% |
(Among those who say democracy is under threat) What one or two words do you think summarize the current threat to democracy?
Date: |
||
Pop.: |
||
[VOL] The government/government corruption/non-specific politicians/leaders |
14% |
|
[VOL] Republicans (include non-Trump named Republican leaders like McConnell) |
4% |
|
[VOL] Democrats (include non-Biden named Democratic leaders like Pelosi) |
6% |
|
[VOL] Donald Trump |
8% |
|
[VOL] Joe Biden |
5% |
|
[VOL] Socialism/communism |
3% |
|
[VOL] Nationalism/white nationalism/right-wing extremism |
5% |
|
[VOL] Violence/political extremism |
3% |
|
[VOL] PC culture/woke issues/cancel culture |
2% |
|
[VOL] Voter fraud/voting issues |
3% |
|
[VOL] Misinformation/conspiracies/election denial |
3% |
|
[VOL] Societal divisions/political divisions/polarization |
8% |
|
[VOL] The media |
<.5% |
|
[VOL] Immigration/border control |
1% |
|
[VOL] The economy/inflation |
3% |
|
[VOL] Other, specify |
24% |
|
[VOL] DK/REF |
8% |
(Among those who say democracy is under threat) Which comes closest to your views, even if neither is exactly right?
[READ LIST] [ROTATE RESPONSE OPTIONS]
Date: |
||
Pop.: |
||
We will need to go outside the law to fix our democracy |
17% |
|
We can fix our democracy within our laws and institutions |
81% |
|
[VOL] DK/REF |
3% |
(Among those who say we will need to go outside the law to fix our democracy) How do you think we will need to go outside the law to fix our democracy?
Date: |
||
Pop.: |
||
[VOL] Take up arms/violence/civil war |
11% |
|
[VOL] Improve laws/processes/general fix within the system |
37% |
|
[VOL] Other, specify |
18% |
|
[VOL] Refused |
15% |
|
[VOL] New leadership |
14% |
|
[VOL] Protest |
5% |
(Among those who say democracy is under threat) Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?
[RANDOMIZE ITEMS]
Republicans
[IF NEEDED: Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?]
Date |
Pop. |
Major threat to democracy |
Minor threat to democracy |
Not a threat to democracy |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
28% |
39% |
29% |
3% |
Democrats
[IF NEEDED: Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?]
Date |
Pop. |
Major threat to democracy |
Minor threat to democracy |
Not a threat to democracy |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
33% |
30% |
34% |
3% |
Donald Trump
[IF NEEDED: Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?]
Date |
Pop. |
Major threat to democracy |
Minor threat to democracy |
Not a threat to democracy |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
45% |
22% |
31% |
2% |
Joe Biden
[IF NEEDED: Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?]
Date |
Pop. |
Major threat to democracy |
Minor threat to democracy |
Not a threat to democracy |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
38% |
22% |
37% |
3% |
The federal government
[IF NEEDED: Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?]
Date |
Pop. |
Major threat to democracy |
Minor threat to democracy |
Not a threat to democracy |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
33% |
33% |
30% |
4% |
The Supreme Court
[IF NEEDED: Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?]
Date |
Pop. |
Major threat to democracy |
Minor threat to democracy |
Not a threat to democracy |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
27% |
34% |
36% |
3% |
The Electoral College
[IF NEEDED: Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?]
Date |
Pop. |
Major threat to democracy |
Minor threat to democracy |
Not a threat to democracy |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
27% |
35% |
34% |
4% |
The mainstream media
[IF NEEDED: Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?]
Date |
Pop. |
Major threat to democracy |
Minor threat to democracy |
Not a threat to democracy |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
59% |
25% |
15% |
2% |
Electronic voting machines
[IF NEEDED: Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?]
Date |
Pop. |
Major threat to democracy |
Minor threat to democracy |
Not a threat to democracy |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
20% |
29% |
46% |
4% |
Voting by mail
[IF NEEDED: Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?]
Date |
Pop. |
Major threat to democracy |
Minor threat to democracy |
Not a threat to democracy |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
33% |
21% |
45% |
1% |
How much do you trust that the results of the 2022 midterm elections will be accurate?
[READ LIST] [REVERSE RESPONSE OPTIONS FOR HALF SAMPLE]
Date |
Pop. |
A great deal |
A fair amount |
Not too much |
Not at all |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
35% |
34% |
18% |
10% |
3% |
When it comes to elections in the United States, what concerns you more?
[READ LIST] [ROTATE RESPONSE OPTIONS]
Date: |
||
Pop.: |
||
That some people will cast votes illegally |
46% |
|
That some eligible voters won’t have a fair chance to vote |
48% |
|
[VOL] DK/REF |
6% |
Which candidate do you think was the legitimate winner of the 2020 presidential election?
[READ LIST] [ROTATE RESPONSE OPTIONS]
Date |
Pop. |
Joe Biden |
Donald Trump |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
63% |
29% |
8% |
RV |
65 |
28 |
8 |
Thinking about a candidate for political office who you agree with on most positions, how comfortable would you be voting for that candidate if they say they think the 2020 election was stolen?
[READ LIST] [SHOW RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER FOR ½ SAMPLE]
Date |
Pop. |
Very comfortable |
Somewhat comfortable |
Not too comfortable |
Not at all comfortable |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
18% |
21% |
14% |
40% |
6% |
Thinking about a candidate for political office who you agree with on most positions, how comfortable would you be voting for that candidate if they say they think Joe Biden was the legitimate winner of the 2020 election?
[READ LIST] [SHOW RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER FOR ½ SAMPLE]
Date |
Pop. |
Very comfortable |
Somewhat comfortable |
Not too comfortable |
Not at all comfortable |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
46% |
22% |
9% |
18% |
5% |
Do you personally find the QAnon [Q-ANON] theories or movement believable or not believable, or do you not know enough to say?
Date |
Pop. |
Believable |
Not believable |
Don't know enough to say |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
4% |
37% |
56% |
4% |
Have you ever heard of the movie “2000 Mules” [two-thousand mules]?
FOLLOW UP: Is that a lot or a little?
Date |
Pop. |
Heard a lot |
Heard a little |
Have not heard of this |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
9% |
17% |
72% |
2% |
(Among those who have heard a lot or a little about “2000 Mules”) Do you personally think the findings in “2000 Mules” (two-thousand mules) are believable or not believable, or do you not know enough to say?
Date |
Pop. |
Believable |
Not believable |
Don't know enough to say |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
34% |
20% |
45% |
1% |
What single news source do you turn to most often?
This could include a social media site or a news site.
[IF NEEDED: If you had to pick just one.]
Date: |
||
Pop.: |
||
[VOL] Fox News |
17% |
|
[VOL] CNN |
9% |
|
[VOL] MSNBC |
3% |
|
[VOL] NPR |
4% |
|
[VOL] Talk radio |
2% |
|
[VOL] National television networks, like CBS, NBC or ABC |
14% |
|
[VOL] Local television news |
8% |
|
[VOL] National news organizations, like The New York Times The Wall Street Journal |
6% |
|
[VOL] Local newspapers |
2% |
|
[VOL] Social media |
14% |
|
[VOL] Friends and family |
1% |
|
[VOL] BBC |
1% |
|
[VOL] International source |
1% |
|
[VOL] Aggregation site (ex. Yahoo News) |
2% |
|
[VOL] Right-wing site |
2% |
|
[VOL] Doesn't consume news |
2% |
|
[VOL] Other (specify) |
8% |
|
[VOL] Refused |
4% |
Do you consider yourself Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, some other religion, or do you have no religious affiliation?
Date: |
||
Pop.: |
||
Catholic |
19% |
|
Protestant (Christian) |
32% |
|
Mormon (LDS) |
2% |
|
Jewish |
2% |
|
Muslim |
<.5% |
|
[VOL] CHRISTIAN (includes Baptist, Lutheran, Episcopalian, Methodist, Adventist, Presbyterian) |
6% |
|
Some other religion (specify) |
9% |
|
No religious affiliation |
27% |
|
[VOL] DK/REF |
3% |
(If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?
Date |
Pop. |
Yes |
No |
[VOL] Refused |
---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
55% |
41% |
4% |
Are you of Hispanic origin or descent, such as Mexican, Dominican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, or some other Spanish background?
Date |
Pop. |
Yes |
No |
[VOL] Refused |
---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
13% |
85% |
3% |
Would you consider yourself:
[IF biracial or multiracial: What races would that be?]
Date: |
||
Pop.: |
||
White |
71% |
|
Black or African American |
10% |
|
Asian or Asian American |
3% |
|
Native American |
1% |
|
Some other race (specify) |
4% |
|
More than one race |
7% |
|
[VOL] Refused |
4% |
What is the highest educational level which you have completed:
[READ LIST]
Date: |
||
Pop.: |
||
Grade school |
3% |
|
High school |
27% |
|
Vocational or trade school |
6% |
|
Some college, no degree |
17% |
|
Associate’s degree |
10% |
|
Bachelor’s degree |
22% |
|
Graduate or professional degree |
14% |
|
[VOL] Refused |
1% |
Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or a member of another party?
Date: |
||
Pop.: |
||
Democrat |
31% |
|
Republican |
30% |
|
Independent |
29% |
|
Another party |
3% |
|
[VOL] DK/REF |
6% |
(If not a Democrat or a Republican) And as of today, do you lean more to:
[READ LIST]
Date |
Pop. |
The Democratic Party |
The Republican Party |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
38% |
39% |
23% |
Do you consider yourself politically liberal, moderate, or conservative?
[IF liberal or conservative: Is that very or somewhat?]
Date |
Pop. |
Very liberal |
Somewhat liberal |
Moderate |
Somewhat conservative |
Very conservative |
[VOL] DK /REF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 9–12, 2022 |
RV |
13% |
12% |
32% |
18% |
17% |
8% |
Did you vote in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden?
Date: |
||
Pop.: |
||
Yes |
88% |
|
No |
12% |
|
[VOL] Refused |
<.5% |
(If voted in 2020) Did you vote for:
[READ LIST]
Date: |
||
Pop.: |
||
Donald Trump |
43% |
|
Joe Biden |
46% |
|
[VOL] Jo Jorgensen |
1% |
|
[VOL] DK/REF |
10% |
Methodology
The New York Times/Siena College poll of 792 registered voters nationwide was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Oct. 9 to 12, 2022. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.0 percentage points for registered voters and +/- 4.1 percentage points for the likely electorate.
Sample
The survey is a response-rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.
First, records were selected by state. To adjust for noncoverage bias, the L2 voter file was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and homeownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate were calculated for each strata. The mean expected response rate was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena surveys. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a strata’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.
Second, state records were selected for the national sample. The number of records selected by state was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena national surveys as a function of state (as a random effect), telephone number quality, age, race, turnout and metropolitan status. The state’s share of records was equal to the reciprocal of the mean response rate of the state’s records divided by the national sum of the weights.
Fielding
The sample was stratified by party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, IPOR at the University of Roanoke, and the PORL at the University of North Florida. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 75 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.
The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents initially contacted by English-speakers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 6 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish.
Weighting
The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package. The registered and likely voter weights were calculated separately to account for the differences between registered voters and the likely electorate and to incorporate both modeled vote history data and respondent’s self-reported intention to vote. Survey weights were trimmed at the 99th percentile.
First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by strata. For the likely electorate, the first-stage weight also incorporated the respondent’s modeled intention to vote, based on voter file data.
Second, the sample was weighted to match voter-file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters. The sample was also weighted to match census-based estimates for the educational attainment of registered voters and the likely electorate.
Third, the sample was weighted to match the characteristics of the likely electorate. The estimates for the characteristics of the likely electorate were based on multiple models. First, a model estimated the likely turnout by state, based on recent turnout and the competitiveness of the midterm race. Second, an individual-level model of turnout in 2010, 2018 and 2021 was used to estimate the probability that registrants would participate in the midterm election as a function of their demographic and political characteristics. Finally, the individual-level estimates were adjusted to match the expected turnout by state.
Fourth, self-reported vote intention was incorporated into the estimate of a respondent’s likelihood to vote. That was based on a model of validated turnout in Times/Siena surveys since 2016 as a function of self-reported vote intention and the pre-survey modeled turnout probability, including an adjustment for the higher turnout of survey respondents than nonrespondents.
Finally, the final weight for the likely electorate was equal to the initial likely electorate weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability incorporating self-reported vote intention divided by the initial modeled turnout probability.
Parameters
The following voter-file-based targets were used to weight the sample to match the characteristics of registered voters and the likely electorate:
• Party (NYT classifications based on L2 data and, in states without party registration or primary vote history, a model of partisanship based on previous Times/Siena polls)
• Age (self-reported age or voter file age if the respondent refuses)
• Gender (self-reported gender or voter file gender if the respondent refuses)
• Marital status (L2 model)
• Homeownership (L2 model)
• Metropolitan area (2013 National Center for Health Statistics Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties)
• Region (Census Bureau definition, except Maryland, Delaware and Washington, D.C., reclassified as Northeast)
• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)
• Vote method in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)
The following census-based targets were used to weight the sample to match the characteristics of registered voters and the likely electorate:
• Educational attainment (NYT model based on A.C.S. and C.P.S. data)
The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect is 1.31 for registered voters and 1.38 for the likely electorate.