Drakeford resignation: Who will be Wales' next first minister?

It was coming, but very few people expected it to be so soon - even many Labour Members of the Senedd.

On a Senedd balcony on Wednesday morning, Mark Drakeford confirmed that he would be gone by March.

He didn't say it on the balcony, but confirmed in an interview later that the general election did come into his thinking - and that people in Wales should know who might end up working alongside the next prime minister.

And thoughts also now turn to who will take over.

There are two early front runners - Economy Minister Vaughan Gething and the Education Minister Jeremy Miles - but they have been facing difficulties of their own.

Mr Gething faces another grilling at the Covid inquiry in spring over his previous role as health minister - he had a tough time of it earlier this year.

Mr Miles had to defend the Welsh government's record as recently as last week after poor Pisa results and post-pandemic attendance in schools.

Either would represent a first for Welsh politics - Mr Gething would be the first black politician to lead the country, while Mr Miles would be its first openly gay first minister.

There had been speculation that Eluned Morgan, the current health minister, might run, as she has before.

But she has now ruled herself out of the contest, saying she will concentrate on the many challenges facing the Welsh NHS.

Some on the left of the party were touting Hannah Blythyn, deputy minister for social partnership; and on the same wing is Counsel General (Welsh government chief legal adviser) Mick Antoniw.

However, Ms Blythyn has ruled herself out of the race and is backing Mr Miles.

Another name initially in the mix was Rebecca Evans, Wales' finance minister, but she has thrown her support behind Mr Gething.

Welsh Labour has been meeting this week to discuss how the leadership campaign will proceed.

It is thought that candidates will need nominations from MSs - or a combination of MSs, constituency Labour Parties and/or affiliates to get on to the ballot paper, with the final numbers to be confirmed.

And when things have calmed down (a bit), off it goes again.

Next up - the Welsh budget, with public services braced for cuts.

Whatever materialises will be announced on Mr Drakeford's watch, but with most of the consequences felt by his successor.

Popularity is a fickle friend for politicians. It would have been hard to believe during the dark days of Covid that something else might steal the limelight.

But Mr Drakeford could just as easily be remembered for the new law making 20mph the default speed limit on most roads that were previously 30mph.

In that interview he was adamant - the "right policy" he said. Other countries were now following Wales' lead. Perhaps more provocatively, he said that people would look back and ask "whatever was the fuss about".

The 20mph speed limit was just one step on a difficult journey in 2023 - stubbornly high waiting lists, "crisis cuts" to keep trains running and the NHS going, criticism of the child poverty strategy, poor international Pisa assessment results in schools and strained relations with UK Labour.

Sir Keir Starmer declined to repeat his assertion - made in 2022 - that Welsh Labour was his "blueprint for power." And he had more than one opportunity to repeat it.