Europe could see repeat of last summer's severe droughts, scientists warn

Scarce snow in the Alps, warm temperatures and a widespread lack of rain have scientists worried about a second summer of widespread drought.

Tires lie on the cracked ground of La Vinuela reservoir during a severe drought in La Vinuela, near Malaga, southern Spain August 8, 2022. A prolonged dry spell and extreme heat that made last July the hottest month in Spain since at least 1961, have left Spanish reservoirs at just 40% of capacity on average in early August, well below the ten-year average of around 60%, official data shows.REUTERS/Jon Nazca
Image: The cracked ground of a reservoir during last year's severe drought in southern Spain
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Scientists are warning Europe could see a repeat of the severe droughts that impacted the continent last summer.

In a special snapshot report of drought in Europe in March, the European Drought Observatory (EDO) warned conditions in late winter were similar to those last year - when extreme drought affected areas all over the continent in the summer months.

Last summer saw dry weather shrivel rivers in Germany, fuel vicious wildfires in Spain, deplete Italian hydropower reservoirs and wither crops in France.

After a terrible snow season in the Alps this winter which saw resorts close and snow machines go into overdrive, the European Union's drought body has said there is now a "high risk" of water shortages this spring.

The dry weather was not confined just to the mountains but pervaded much of the continent this winter, with signs of drought already creeping into parts of France, Spain and northern Italy, according to the European Drought Observatory (EDO).

"Some parts of Europe haven't really fully recovered from last year's drought, and re-entering or continuing with such conditions can amplify the impacts and have a cascading effect," warned Andrea Toreti, a senior scientist at the EDO, who compiles the drought data.

"The worst fear for me is that we are going to experience another severe-to-extreme drought, such as the one of last year, or even worse, that would affect again most of Europe," he told Sky News.

Some 15% of EU territory is currently in some form of drought, with 3% in "watch" status, 105% in "warning" and 2% in the most severe "alert" category
Image: Some 15% of EU land is in some form of drought, with 3% in "watch" status, 10% in "warning" and 2% in the most severe "alert" category

The EDO's Combined Drought Indicator showed widespread warning conditions for drought in countries including the UK, Ireland and Switzerland.

Spring is forecast to be warmer than average over Europe, meaning "proper water use plans are required to deal with a season that currently has a high risk of being critical for water resources".

The UK government and water companies are under ongoing fire from opposition MPs and campaigners to clean up the country's filthy waterways, polluted by plastics, farming and chemicals, and plug widespread leaks.

Last week, France's President Emmanuel Macron launched a broad plan to save water resources.

French President Emmanuel Macron, center, speaks to journalists upon his arrival in Sainte-Savine-Le-Lac, southeastern France, Thursday, March 30, 2023. Emmanuel Macron presented a plan for saving France's water after exceptional winter drought, February wildfires and violence between protesters and police over an agricultural reservoir. Pic: AP
Image: French President Emmanuel Macron last week launched a plan for saving France's water

Resources are growing increasingly scarce because of climate change, making farming more difficult, drying lakes and leaving some household taps running dry.

A wildfire that burned for several days in Spain last month was unusually long and early in the year.

Two forest brigades work to extinguish the flames in a forest fire, on March 30, 2023, in Baleira, Lugo, Galicia (Spain), already affecting 1,100 hectares. The strong wind affecting the area, with wind gusts of up to 70 kilometers per hour and changing direction, has hindered the work of firefighting teams since its inception. Pic: AP
Image: A large wildfire blazed unusually early in the year in Spain's northwestern Galicia region

Snow in the Alps 'far below historical average'

The amount of water frozen in the snowy Alps is now even lower than this time last year, the EDO said, meaning a "severe" drop in the water that will flow into nearby rivers when the snow melts.

In fact, the snow conditions this year are the worst since 2011 in Italy and since 1998 in Switzerland.

Skiers pass on a small layer of artificial snow amid warmer-than-usual winter temperatures in the Alps in Leysin, Switzerland, January 4, 2023. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse
Image: The amount of water frozen in the Swiss mountains this winter is the lowest since 1998

Scientists are worried that drought driven by the climate crisis is hitting harder and sooner than they had forecast.

Just a few years ago "we estimated that recurrent extreme drought, such as the one we have been observing last year, would have become a common occurrence around mid-century under the most pessimistic scenarios", said Mr Toreti.

"Now it seems that we are already in this space because there was [drought in] 2018 and then 2022 and now again this year, so it seems that to me it is happening sooner than we were expecting."

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Professor Daniela Schmidt from Bristol University, a global expert on Europe's changing climate, said ongoing water shortages in Europe show the problem is "much more widespread than even our assessments last year would have concluded".

Extreme years like last year or 2018 "give a taste of what future climate change might look like", she said.

"We have rivers which don't have enough water to transport goods. We have water shortages which are aggravated, of course, by faulty infrastructure," she said.

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"Fish have to be removed from the river and brought to the next because there wasn't enough water."

An exceptionally wet March in the UK restored many reservoir levels, which ran extremely low last year, but water levels underground - which supply rivers - are still depleted, she said.

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