It was presented as an agreement between three close allies to build submarines for Australia, creating jobs and protecting the peace and prosperity of east Asia. Now the “Aukus” grouping is being expanded to include new members, arousing the anger of China and provoking accusations that it is destined to become an Asian version of Nato and the engine of a new cold war.
South Korea confirmed on Wednesday that it was in talks about joining the three original members of the grouping: Australia, Britain and the United States. The announcement comes soon after Fumio Kishida, Japan’s prime minister, discussed his country becoming an Aukus member with President Biden. There have also been expressions of interest from New Zealand and Canada.
None of them will play a role in the original task announced when Aukus was unveiled in 2021: the provision by the US and Britain of conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines for Australia. Instead, prospective members would participate in an element that was given no emphasis at the time: “pillar two”, a broader effort among US-friendly governments to jointly develop high-tech weapons, including hypersonic missiles, underwater drones and cybertechnology.
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“We support Aukus pillar-two activities and we welcome members considering Korea as an Aukus pillar-two partner,” South Korea’s defence minister, Shin Won-sik, said after meeting Australian ministers in Melbourne. “Korea’s defence science and technology capabilities will contribute to … the regional peace.”
His Australian counterpart, Richard Marles, said, “[South] Korea is obviously a country with deeply impressive technology, where we do have shared values, where we have strategic alignment, where we engage closely together … As Aukus pillar two develops I think there will be opportunities in the future, and we’re seeing that play out in relation to Japan as well.”
New Zealand’s foreign minister, Winston Peters, said on Wednesday that his government was still “a long way” from deciding to join Aukus but that it was under consideration. “It would be utterly irresponsible for any government of any stripe to not consider whether collaborating with like-minded partners on advances in technology is in our national interest,” he said.
Last month Justin Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister, said that he had held “excellent conversations” with Britain, the US and Australia about joining.
‘Cold War mentality’
There was no immediate official reaction from China, but the government of President Xi has long deplored Aukus, which it regards as a pretext for encircling China and suppressing its ambitions to become a regional and world power.
It is similarly suspicious of the Quad, a separate grouping that brings together Australia, India, Japan and the US in annual military exercises.
“The real purpose of Aukus is to incite bloc division and military confrontation through military co-operation based on exclusive circles,” the Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman, Mao Ning, said last month.
“This is typical Cold War mentality. It heightens the risk of nuclear proliferation, exacerbates an arms race in the Asia-Pacific and undermines regional peace and stability. China and many regional countries have expressed grave concerns and opposition over this.”
In September Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, warned of “the emergence of the Asian-version of Nato, the root cause of war and aggression”.
When Aukus was announced it represented an obvious effort to counter Beijing’s military power and growing assertiveness in the region. But it was restricted to “trilateral collaboration” until last year, when Aukus communiques began to talk about pillar two and the plan to invite “partners” along.
Critics warn that Aukus will accelerate the emerging arms race in the region and cement the growing atmosphere of armed confrontation between China and the US’s network of allies. Smaller east Asian governments from Mongolia to Papua New Guinea have pleaded not to be forced to choose between the sides of a potential new Iron — or “Bamboo” — Curtain.
The relationship between contemporary China and the West is fundamentally different from that of the Soviet Union and Nato during the Cold War. All of Asia profits to some extent from the massive demands of Chinese consumers.
But compared with Europe, Asian countries have weak and often tense relationships, and the region has never developed strong multilateral institutions. Regional organisations such as the Association of Southeast Asian States are feeble and ineffective.
A security structure has been provided by the bilateral alliances that the US has made with countries such as Japan, Australia, South Korea and the Philippines, and by looser military co-operation with the likes of India.